President William Ruto, during the campaigns leading up to the 2013 general elections, where he and Uhuru Kenyatta won the presidency, coined the tag 'mganga'—which can be loosely translated into 'a charmer'—to describe former Prime Minister Raila Odinga for his usual utterances, similar to the incantations of a charmer; the TIBIM, TYALALA, and RYAAA. However, with time, the son of Sugoi has proven to be the charmer-in-chief. He has actually succeeded in charming the very charmer he feared—Odinga—into his cage. His consistent and seemingly never-failing tactic has been one; a tactic as old as politics itself: divide and rule. He has skillfully applied this approach to navigate the complex web of ethnic, regional, and political affiliations that define Kenya's political landscape.
From the moment he took office, Ruto has been acutely aware of the delicate balance of power in the country. Kenya’s political landscape is a mosaic of competing interests. Alliances are fragile and loyalties are often transactional. He has deftly exploited these dynamics, sowing seeds of division among his rivals while consolidating his own base, and this has worked like a charm.
The Handshake That Wasn't
One of Ruto’s most significant maneuvers has been his handling of the so-called "handshake" alliance between former President Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga. This coalition, forged in the aftermath of the 2017 election, was a formidable force that Ruto was once a part of as Deputy President. However, as he began to see his own political ambitions sidelined, he pivoted. He then quickly crafted a narrative of betrayal and exclusion that resonated deeply with his supporters.
By positioning himself as the underdog, Ruto effectively split the former alliance, drawing a line between the so-called "dynasties" of Kenyatta and Odinga and his self-styled image as a "hustler" representing the common man. This move not only fractured the opposition but also galvanized his base, which viewed him as the true champion of the people. Whether they still see him as such is a topic we will look into some other day.
The Hustler vs. Dynasty Narrative
This rhetoric has allowed him to cast his political struggle in stark, populist terms, pitting the wealthy, established elites against the hardworking, everyday Kenyans. This dichotomy has been particularly effective in a country where economic inequality remains a significant issue.
Ruto has managed to co-opt the frustrations of the economically marginalized, turning them into a powerful political force by framing the political discourse this way. His "bottom-up" economic model, though criticized by some as overly simplistic, has nonetheless struck a chord with a significant portion of the electorate. This approach has divided the political class, with some leaders scrambling to align themselves with the "hustler nation" to stay relevant, while others have been left in the cold.
Regional Splits and Ethnic Politics
Kenya’s political landscape is heavily influenced by ethnic affiliations, and Ruto has not shied away from exploiting these divisions to his advantage. He has carefully courted leaders from various regions and ethnic groups, and with this, he has managed to weaken the once-solid support bases of his rivals.
In Mount Kenya, a region that was once a stronghold of the Kenyatta dynasty, Ruto has made significant inroads by supporting leaders who were sidelined by the former president. This has not only eroded Kenyatta's influence but has also created a power vacuum that Ruto has been quick to fill. With the rift between him and his deputy widening every passing day and his hope for a solid Mount Kenya vote dwindling, he has managed to court a significant number of leaders from the region to help him fight his rivals on their home ground—the same ‘divide and rule’ at play.
In yet another smart and tactical move, the president has been able to kill several birds with one stone. By endorsing Odinga for the AU commission chairmanship bid and giving the “fat” ministerial positions to his allies, Ruto has made himself a darling of the Nyanza region overnight. This has not only created a new support base for him but also left the opposition in shambles. Martha Karua—a fierce iron fist of the Azimio brigade—called it quits the moment ODM crossed the aisle. Now, everybody calls themselves the official opposition leader: Morara Kebaso, Jimmy Wanjigi, Kalonzo Musyoka and the Gen Zs can’t seem to agree on who is to lead whom.
If former President Daniel Moi was the professor of politics, then Ruto was his first-class student. As the 2027 elections loom on the horizon, this seasoned politician of more than three decades continues to outmaneuver his opponents and consolidate his influence in a country where political fortunes are as fluid as they are volatile. Whether this strategy will sustain him through the upcoming elections or eventually backfire remains to be seen, but for now, it is clear that President Ruto’s political acumen is a force to be reckoned with.