The question of whether there is a rift between President William Ruto and Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is now an open secret. The train has long left the station. However, one cannot help but wonder why the president is not afraid of losing the Mount Kenya vote for sidelining his deputy.
After meticulous calculations, the president must have concluded that the mountain is overrated and the belief that it is the kingmaker is merely a fallacy. This very belief has caused some people's egos to blow out of proportion, hence the urgent need to tame them and those with a similar attitude.
Ruto is undoubtedly a political genius, and by the time he decisively chose to untie the knot so soon, he had contented with the fact that he cannot secure a consolidated Mount Kenya vote with Gachagua out of the picture. Then, if so, why would he take such a risk?
In his strategic calculations, the president has identified a "not very well-utilized" vote-rich region – Western Kenya. This region, spanning Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, and Busia counties, boasts a voter population of more than 2 million registered voters, according to the 2022 IEBC voter register. This is the second largest region in terms of voter population, coming behind Mount Kenya region. With former Prime Minister Raila Odinga headed for the African Union Commission's chairperson position, Ruto’s chances of garnering almost all votes in this region seem almost guaranteed. So, why would he beg an arrogant deputy for the Mount Kenya vote?
This explains why the president has been camping in the land of Mulembe in the days leading up to and following this year’s Madaraka Day fete. Western Kenya is President William Ruto’s newfound bae. If well courted, it will propel him to the presidency come 2027. Moreover, with Raila Odinga preoccupied with African matters in Addis Ababa, Ruto stands to gain a significant chunk of Nyanza’s votes, primarily because many voters would prefer jumping on the bandwagon and voting for the widely accepted Ruto rather than supporting an underdog in the opposition. This gives the president more reason not to be worried about the mountain.
Worth noting, also, is the fact that a substantial section of Mount Kenya legislators has remained in Ruto’s camp as Gachagua departs with his group. These loyalists are enough to divide the Mount Kenya vote and ensure that neither Gachagua nor any other contender secures a consolidated vote in the mountain – yet another advantage for the president.
Despite the president having promised to never treat his deputy the way he was treated by his boss, why would he so quickly turn back on his word? Ruto is the political disciple of the late President Moi, the same Moi who ruled with an iron fist, showing zero tolerance to anyone who appeared to threaten his position or influence, including the likes of Koigi Wamwere, Raila Odinga, and George Saitoti. The script is not very different with Ruto. He knows very well that an aggressive deputy constantly throwing demands at him is a threat. Lucky for the president, he has the option of choosing Musalia Mudavadi, a cool, calm, and collected loyalist who would not only dance to the president’s tune but also bring a whole region to the voting booth.